Peran Dividend Policy dalam Memoderasi Pengaruh Investment Opportunity Set Terhadap Stock Return dengan Profitabilitas Sebagai Variabel Kontrol
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v10i2.3292Keywords:
Dividend policy, Investment Opportunity Set, Stock return, ProfitabilityAbstract
This study examines the effect of Investment Opportunity Set (IOS) on stock return, with dividend policy acting as a moderating variable and profitability as a control variable in companies listed in the LQ45 Index during the 2020–2024 period. The sample was selected through purposive sampling, resulting in 23 companies that met the criteria, with a total of 115 observations. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the assistance of EViews 13, including descriptive statistics, classical assumption tests, hypothesis testing, and interaction testing to examine the moderating effect. Based on the results of the model selection tests, the Random Effects Model (REM) was determined to be the most appropriate model. The findings indicate that IOS has a positive and significant effect on stock return, suggesting that firms with greater growth opportunities tend to generate higher returns. Dividend policy is found to weaken the effect of IOS on stock return, indicating that higher dividend distribution may reduce the strength of the positive relationship between growth opportunities and market returns. Furthermore, profitability functions as an effective control variable, as it is able to isolate the pure effect of IOS and dividend policy on stock return without eliminating their statistical significance. These findings are consistent with agency theory, which posits that dividend policy serves as a mechanism to reduce agency conflicts between managers and shareholders by limiting managerial discretion over free cash flow, thereby influencing how investment opportunities are translated into shareholder returns.
Downloads
Plum-X Analityc
References
Akbar, R., Sukmawati, U. S., & Katsirin, K. (2023). Analisis Data Penelitian Kuantitatif ( Pengujian Hipotesis Asosiatif Korelasi ). 1(3). https://doi.org/10.59996/jurnalpelitanusantara.v1i3.350
AlZou’bi, M. J., Bashatweh, A. D., & Khader, L. F. A. (2020). The Influence of Capital Structure on Stock Returns – An Empirical Study on Industrial Companies. Research in World Economy, 11(6), 362. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v11n6p362
Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2016). Analisis Regresi dalam Penelitian Ekonomi & Bisnis: Dilengkapi Aplikasi SPPS dan Eviews. In Rajagrafindo Persada.
Basuki, A. T., & Yuliadi, I. (2014). Electronic Data Processing (SPSS 15 dan EVIEWS 7). In Hospitals (1st ed., Vol. 44, Issue 11). Danisa Media.
Bruin, J. (2024). Statistical Methods and Data Analytics. UCLA. https://stats.oarc.ucla.edu/stata/ado/analysis/
Dewangga, F., & Tundjung, H. (2021). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Memengaruhi Stock Return Dengan Investment Opportunity Set Sebagai Intervening. Jurnal Paradigma Akuntansi, 3(4), 1368. https://doi.org/10.24912/jpa.v3i4.14933
Dewi, E. V., & Fatimah, S. N. (2026). Market Valuation as a Moderator of Investment Risk and Investment Opportunity Set on Stock Returns. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 5(1), 99–110. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.56127/jekma.v5i1.2559
Eryomin, I., Likhacheva, O., & Chernikova, L. (2021). Impact of Dividend Policy on the Market Value of the Company. SHS Web of Conferences, 91(5), 01013. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219101013
EViews. (2023). EViews User’s Guide: Basic Single Equation Analysis. https://www.eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content/Regress1-Equation_Output.html
Febiyani, D., & Aprilia, E. A. (2025). The Effect of Inflation, Investment Opportunity Set, and Accounting Profit on Stock Returns. Jurnal Intelek Dan Cendikiawan Nusantara, 2(3), 4576–4592. https://jicnusantara.com/index.php/jicn
Febriyanti, G. A. (2020). Dampak pandemi Covid-19 terhadap harga saham dan aktivitas volume perdagangan (Studi kasus saham LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Indonesia Accounting Journal, 2(2), 204. https://doi.org/10.32400/iaj.30579
Ghozali. (2020). 25 Grand Theory, Teori Besar Ilmu Manajemen, Akuntansi dan Bisnis (Untuk Landasan Teori Skripsi, Tesis dan Disertasi) (Apriya (ed.)). Yoga Pratama.
Ghozali, I. (2018). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate Dengan Program IBM SPSS 25 (A. Tejokusumo (ed.); 9th ed.). Universitas Diponegoro. www.imamghozali.com
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. In McGraw-Hill/Irwin (5th ed.).
Hoong, T. B., Ling, T. Y., Hassan, S., & Abdullah, N. M. H. (2023). Stock Returns and Inflation: a Bibliometric Analysis. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(2), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i2.1547
Idris, M. F. A. T., & Sirotus, R. R. (2022). Moderasi Technology Atas Pengaruh Investment Opportunity Set Dan Earnings Quality Terhadap Stock Return. Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 7(3), 3091–3112. www.aging-us.com
IDX. (2021). IDX Stock Index Handbook V1.2. IDX Stock Index Handbook V1.2, 52. https://www.idx.co.id/media/9816/idx-stock-index-handbook-v12-_-januari-2021.pdf
Jaya, S. (2020). Pengaruh Ukuran Perusahaan (Firm Size) dan Profitabilitas (ROA) Terhadap Nilai Perusahaan (Firm Value) Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Property dan Real Estate di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Jurnal Manajemen Motivasi, 16, 38–44. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29406/jmm.v16i1.2136
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323–329. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1818789
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
Lang, F. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Investment Opportunity Set (IOS), Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Asset (ROA), dan Debt To Equity Ratio (DER) Terhadap Return Saham Pada Perusahaan Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi yang Terdaftar Dibursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal FinAcc, 4(10), 1–10.
Mahirun, M. (2023). Determinants of LQ45 Stock Return in Indonesia. Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice, Series D: Faculty of Economics and Administration, 31(2). https://doi.org/10.46585/sp31021693
Marbun, R. S., & Suhartini, D. (2024). Hubungan Kualitas Laba, Profitabilitas, Dan Corporate Social Responsibility Terhadap Return Saham. Gorontalo Accounting Journal, 7(2), 360. https://doi.org/10.32662/gaj.v7i2.3551
Munzhelele, F., Wolmarans, H., & Hall, J. (2022). The Dividend Relevance Pay-Out Model in The Context of an Emerging Economy. Acta Commercii, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.4102/ac.v22i1.993
Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0
Nadyayani, D. A. D., & Suarjaya, A. A. G. (2021). The Effect of Profitability on Stock Return. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 5(1), 695–703.
Napitupulu, R. B., Simanjutak, T. P., Hutabarat, L., Damanik, H., Harianja, H., Sirait, R. T. M., & Ria, C. E. (2021). Penelitian Bisnis, Teknik dan Analisa Data dengan SPSS - STATA - EVIEWS (1st ed.). Madenatera.
Njoku, O. E., Lee, Y., & Koo, J.-H. (2024). The Effects of Agency Problems and Dividend Policy on the Asymmetric Behaviour of Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: Does Ownership Structure Matter? Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 20(2), 29–84. https://doi.org/10.21315/aamjaf2024.20.2.2
Nurhikmawaty, D., Isnurhadi, I., Widiyanti, M., & Yuliani, Y. (2020). The Effect of Debt to Equity Ratio and Return on Equity on Stock Return with Dividend Policy as Intervening Variables in Subsectors Property and Real Estate on Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding, 7(7), 255. https://doi.org/10.18415/ijmmu.v7i7.1850
Oktavia. (2023). Pengaruh Investment Opportunity Set (IOS), Profitabilitas , Deviden Yield Terhadap Return Saham Dengan Struktur Modal Sebagai Variabel Moderasi (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Non-Cyclicals Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun. Universitas Multi Data Palembang.
Paramita, R. W. D., Rizal, N., & Sulistyan, R. B. (2021). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif (Buku Ajar Perkuliahan Metodologi Penelitian Bagi Mahasiswa Akuntansi & Manajemen) (3rd ed.). Widya Gama Press.
Permata, C. P., & Ginting, R. (2023). Pengaruh Investment Opportunity Set (IOS) Terhadap Return Saham dengan Partial Least Square (PLS) (Studi Perusahaan Industri Barang Konsumsi). JAAKFE UNTAN (Jurnal Audit Dan Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Tanjungpura), 12(1), 15. https://doi.org/10.26418/jaakfe.v12i1.63452
Pradnyawati, S. O. (2024). Faktor Determinan Kinerja Keuangan pada Return Saham (Studi Kasus pada Perusahaan Perbankan di Indonesia). 5(2), 121–132. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v5i2.1312
Putra, I. G. C., & Manuari, I. A. R. (2024). The Investment Opportunity and Company Size Affecting Financial Performance and Dividend Policy. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Kontemporer, 16(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23969/jrak.v16i1.7531
Rasyid, A., Hastuti, R. T., & Santoso, N. A. (2021). Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Return Saham Dengan Kebijakan Dividen Sebagai Moderasi Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur. Prosiding SENAPENMAS, 1079. https://doi.org/10.24912/psenapenmas.v0i0.15142
Sabatamia, M., & Hutabarat, F. M. (2020). Investment Opportunity Set and Capital Structure on Stock Return With Profitability as The Control Variabble: an Evidence of Bank Companies in INFOBANK15. Jurnal Akuntansi, 10(1), 105–114. https://doi.org/10.33369/j.akuntansi.10.1.105-114
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Fitri Yani, Abdul Rosyid, Fiesty Utami
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
