Asimetri Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Ganda Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah: Pendekatan Nardl

Heru  Setyowiyono; Lina  Trisnawati; Aina Izzati  Zuhria; Sarirotul  'Alim; Rokhmat  Subagiyo

doi:10.33395/owner.v10i3.3481

Authors

Heru Setyowiyono
✉ Corresponding author: herusetyo1011@gmail.com Universitas Islam Negeri Sayyid Ali Rahmatullah Tulungagung
Lina Trisnawati Universitas Islam Negeri Sayyid Ali Rahmatullah Tulungagung
Aina Izzati Zuhria
Sarirotul 'Alim
Rokhmat Subagiyo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v10i3.3481

Abstract

Fluctuations in the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate within the context of a dual financial system highlight the critical role of monetary policy in maintaining macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the effects of conventional and Islamic monetary policy instruments on the rupiah exchange rate while accounting for external factors. The analysis employs the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model using monthly time series data from 2016 to 2025, covering the rupiah exchange rate, BI Rate, PUAS, inflation, and the Federal Reserve interest rate. The results indicate that these variables significantly influence the rupiah exchange rate in both the short and long run, with evidence of long-run cointegration among the variables. However, the asymmetric test results reveal no significant differences in the response to increases and decreases in the BI Rate and PUAS. These findings suggest that although the dual monetary system plays a role in exchange rate stability, market responses tend to be symmetric with respect to monetary policy changes.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ahmed, H. F. T., & Mazlan, N. S. (2021). The impact of interest rate on exchange rate within ASEAN countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 1–28.

Alalmai, S. (2025). Resilience of Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC during systemic crises: Evidence from a dynamic panel GMM framework. International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 12(6), 603–614. https://doi.org/10.14419/9cfj1256

Ambarwati, A. D., Sara, I. M., & Aziz, I. S. A. (2021). Pengaruh jumlah uang beredar (JUB), BI rate dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 2009–2018. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal, 4(1), 21–27.

Andries, A. M., et al. (2016). The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates in a small open emerging economy. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2747064

Ascarya. (2012). Transmission channel and effectiveness of dual monetary policy in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i3.405

Badi, R. A., Askafi, & Rusandy. (2024). Macroeconomic analysis of Indonesian inflation post COVID-19 with the exchange rate as an intervening variable. COSTING: Journal of Economic, Business and Accounting, 7, 4759–4773.

Bangun, D. E. M. P., & Silalahi, R. (2026). Kurs dan valuta asing dalam sistem perekonomian terbuka: Tinjauan konseptual atas faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi nilai tukar dan volatilitasnya. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 4(2), 1308–1321. https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v4i2.8961

Dainy, O., Hasanah, I., Sopia, S., & Sari, R. N. (2025). Pengaruh implementasi kebijakan moneter syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 2020–2023. Moneter: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan.

CEIC. (2026). Foreign portfolio investment: USD, Indonesia (2016–2025). https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/indonesia/foreign-portfolio-investment

Febrianto, M. N., Subagiyo, R., & Aswad, M. (2025). Arbitrage and interest rate parity: Implications for foreign exchange investors and speculators. Fokus Ekonomi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi, 86–97.

Ginting, R., Murniadi, C., Iskandar, D., & Wuryandani, G. (2013). Kodifikasi peraturan Bank Indonesia likuiditas rupiah pasar uang antar bank. Pusat Riset dan Edukasi Bank Sentral.

Gugun, M. (2021). Inflation and exchange rates: Relative purchasing power parity. Jurnal Maneksi. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350784289

Bank Indonesia. (2018). BI 7-day reverse repo rate naik 50 bps menjadi 5,25%: Respons bauran kebijakan lanjutan untuk memperkuat stabilitas ekonomi. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_205118.aspx

Bank Indonesia. (2026). BI rate 2016–2025. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/BI-Rate.aspx

Junaedi, D., Norman, E., Romli, M., & Salistia, F. (2020). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia’s monetary stability. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Islamic Studies (ICIS) (Vol. 35).

Departemen Komunikasi Bank Indonesia. (2024). Memahami suku bunga acuan BI: Kunci ambil keputusan keuangan yang tepat. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/cerita-bi/Pages/data-suku-bunga-bi-saat-ini.aspx

Kurniawan, D. (2025). Model kebijakan moneter dalam perekonomian terbuka di Indonesia. Efisiensi: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengembangan Ilmu Manajemen, 2(2), 50–57. https://doi.org/10.63217/efisiensi.v2i2

Mengkilo, P. P., Rotinsulu, T. O., & Mandeij, D. (2025). Analisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter AS terhadap kekuatan nilai tukar rupiah. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 25.

Muqowwi, M. H., Mubarok, Z., Solina, R. P., & Abadi, M. T. (2024). Sistem perekonomian terbuka. Journal Sains Student Research, 2(1), 452–461. https://doi.org/10.61722/jssr.v2i1.634

Nopeline, N., Damanik, D., & Gea, P. A. (2024). Dampak asimetris nilai tukar rupiah terhadap perdagangan Indonesia dengan mitra dagang. EKUILNOMI: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 6(2), 431–440.

Pangestuti, D. C. (2020). Manajemen keuangan internasional. Deepublish.

Pasaribu, V. L. D., & Virby, S. (2025). Manajemen keuangan internasional. PT Media Pustaka Indo.

Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. (2025). Perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia dan dunia triwulan II tahun 2025.

Rangkuty, D. M., Lubis, H. P., Hedianto, & Zora, M. M. (2022). Teori inflasi (studi kasus: Pelaku usaha rumah tangga desa Klambir Lima Kebeum sebelum dan selama pandemi COVID-19). Deepublish.

Kementerian Perdagangan RI. (2026). Nilai tukar mata uang asing terhadap rupiah (USD). https://satudata.kemendag.go.id

Ridzwan, E. M., Aman, N. H., & Mohamed, S. (2025). Understanding the role of Islamic finance in economic resilience. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 9, 2427–2433. https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS

Sahrani, N. A. N., & Tauhid, I. (2022). Konsep nilai tukar uang perspektif ekonomi Islam. Balanca: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 4(2), 1–7.

Santosa, A. B. (2018). Nilai tukar rupiah pendekatan purchasing power parity. LPPM.

Suganda, T. R. (2018). Event study: Teori dan pembahasan reaksi pasar modal Indonesia. CV Seribu Bintang.

Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice.

Yuliadi, I. (2020). The implementation of a dual monetary system in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(3), 28–39.